WTO predicts a slowdown in merchandise trade growth

The WTO (World Trade Organization) expects a slowdown in the growth of merchandise trade volumes in the third quarter of 2019.

According to WTO predictions, the index of its evolution barometer of international trade in goods stands at 95.7 points.

This WTO barometer on trade in goods is made from data using a base 100. When the number of your forecasts is above this base 100, it means that the outlook is positive. If it falls below, it indicates a worsening of the situation.

“The loss of momentum in trade in goods has already been confirmed in previous quarters in which official data is available. The barometer suggests that the expansion below the trend in merchandise trade will persist in the coming months” said the WTO.

All the elements that make up the index tend to fall. The international air cargo indexes are 91.4, the electronic components are the ones that have suffered the greatest deviation compared to the previous readings, standing at 90.7 points. Export orders, 97.5 points; automobile production and sales, with 93.5 points; and agricultural raw materials, with 97.1 points.

Container transport is still the most robust segment of international trade, according to the WTO. The index on maritime container transport, with 99 points, is the closest to the 100-reference index value.

The WTO noted that in the previous months trade flows “affected by the new restrictions continued at historically high levels between mid-October 2018 and mid-May 2019”. And stresses that «the tensions that lead to greater trade barriers and greater uncertainty pose significant risks when making growth forecasts.» The WTO does not mention any actor, but it is understood that it is referring to the US-China conflict.